Monday, October 13, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

**Don't tell me the sky's the limit, when there are footprints on the moon.**
Paul Brandt


LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.3 BANDA SEA
5.4 SOUTHERN PERU
5.7 OFF W. COAST OF S. ISLAND, N.Z.
5.0 SOUTH OF PANAMA
5.0 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE

Yesterday, 10/12/14 -
5.0 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.1 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.1 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.1 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.4 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.2 MID-INDIAN RIDGE
5.0 ICELAND
5.5 REYKJANES RIDGE
5.4 REYKJANES RIDGE
5.1 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION

10/11/14 -
5.2 OAXACA, MEXICO
5.5 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
6.0 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
5.0 BANDA SEA

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details. No current tropical storms.

*In the Atlantic -
Hurricane Gonzalo is located about 20 mi...30 km se of St. Martin. Additional strengthening likely.

*In the Central Pacific -
Tropical depression Two-C is located about 920 mi...1480 km ESE of Hilo, Hawaii.

* In the Western Pacific Ocean -
Tropical storm 19w (Vongfong) is located approximately 78 nm north-northwest of Yokosuka, Japan.
---------------------------------
A strengthening tropical storm - Gonzalo - takes aim at the Caribbean. Tropical Storm Gonzalo gained strength as it took aim at a swath of the Caribbean including Puerto Rico, threatening to dump heavy rains that could unleash mudslides and flash floods.
As it approached the warm waters of the Caribbean, the storm's impending arrival prompted wary officials to post hurricane or tropical storm warnings and watches stretching from the French island of Guadeloupe to the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico. Rain-swollen Gonzalo was expected to move through parts of the Leeward Islands by early Monday, producing 4 inches to 8 inches (10 centimeters to 20 centimeters) of pelting rainfall, with some isolated areas potentially getting deluged with as much as 12 inches (30 centimeters).
Hundreds of miles (kilometers) north of the Caribbean, Fay strengthened briefly into a hurricane as it tracked away from Bermuda before returning to tropical storm strength late Sunday. It earlier lashed the British chain with heavy rain and gusting winds. There were no immediate reports of injuries as Bermuda authorities assessed damage and discontinued storm watches and warnings.
Fay, which had maximum sustained winds of 65 mph (100 kph), disrupted power for more than 27,000 customers of the Bermuda Electric Light Company. The utility is the sole supplier of electricity for the territory of roughly 65,000 inhabitants. Forecasters said a cold front was likely to absorb Fay on Monday.

Typhoon Vongfong - The strongest storm to hit Japan this year battered the southern islands of Kyushu and Shikoku early on Monday, brought heavy rain to Tokyo and caused extensive travel disruption. Typhoon Vongfong has forced the cancellation of more than 500 domestic flights. (9 photos at link)

Gonzalo Hurricane Strength - 24 Dead, $1.6 Billion in Damage in India From Hudhud. Hurricane warnings are flying in the British Virgin Islands as strengthening Tropical Storm Gonzalo marches west-northwest at 10 mph though the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands.
The storm passed over Antigua Island between 10 am - 11 am AST on Monday, and sustained winds at Antigua hit 45 mph at 7 am AST before the station stopped reporting. NHC is still able to get wind information from the island, and the island reported a sustained wind of 67 mph gusting to 88 mph late Monday morning. Winds at nearby Barbuda were sustained at 43 mph gusting to 61 mph. Gonzalo should steadily intensify through the week, and has the potential to be a major Category 3 hurricane by Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Hudhud has dissipated after it powered ashore near Visakhapatnam in the Andhra Pradesh state of India at 05 UTC (3 am EDT) Sunday as a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 135 mph. At least 24 deaths are being blamed on the cyclone: 21 in Andhra Pradesh, and 3 in the neighboring Odisha state. Preliminary damage estimates are at least $1.64 billion (Rs 10,000 crore), with the heaviest damage in Visakhapatnam, a port city of 2 million, which received a direct hit.

HEALTH THREATS -
RECALLS & ALERTS:

The Ebola epidemic threatens the "very survival" of societies and could lead to failed states, the World Health Organization (WHO) warns.

*****

Global Disaster Watch is on Facebook with breaking news during the day.

Friday, October 10, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

**Praise and criticism are like Bubblegum.
Chew on both of them but don't swallow either of them.**

LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
This morning -
5.2 KURIL ISLANDS
5.0 REYKJANES RIDGE
5.6 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE

Yesterday, 10/9/14 -
5.4 EASTER ISLAND REGION
5.1 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.0 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.6 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
5.2 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
6.5 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
7.1 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE

VOLCANOES -

Unrest within Mayon volcano prompted Philippine authorities to move nearby residents and farm animals away from areas threatened by what appeared to be an impending eruption. Approximately 55,000 people have been relocated since the 8,081-foot mountain began rumbling. Evacuees have been housed in makeshift centers, typically schools and other government buildings. Mayon’s crater had expanded significantly since late September due to rising lava, which has cast an eerie glow visible for miles as the molten flow emerged from Mayon’s summit.

Indonesia’s Mount Sinabung volcano sent villagers feeling on Sunday when it erupted. ‘Just over a year ago, an eruption from Mount Sinabung killed 14 people and forced more than 33,000 others to evacuate their homes. The volcano began erupting again on Sunday, emitting pyroclastic flows that were the largest for five months. Local people panicked, including those who are still living in evacuation shelters since the volcano began erupting on September 15 last year, because of the size of the flows and clouds of volcanic ash, which extended to Berastagi city, 13 kilometres from Sinabung. The volcano erupted again in February this year, killing 17 people, most of whom were students.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.

* In the Western Pacific Ocean -
Typhoon 19w (Vongfong) is located approximately 220 nm south-southeast of Kadena AB, Okinawa, Japan.

*In the North Indian Ocean -
Tropical cyclone 03b (Hudhud) is located approximately 250 nm south-east of visakhapatnam, India.
---------------------------------
Subtropical Depression 7 Headed Towards Bermuda, but 90L is the One to Watch -Subtropical Depression Seven formed in the Atlantic at 11 am EDT Friday. The depression, located about 590 miles south of Bermuda, was headed northwest at 10 mph, and Bermuda is the only land area the storm poses a threat to. A tropical storm watch has been posted for the island, and the 11 am EDT Wind Probability Forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 14% chance of seeing tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph, with the strongest winds expected to affect the island Saturday evening into Sunday morning.
Pay attention to Invest 90L east of the Lesser Antilles - An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave located about 700 hundred miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Friday morning has been designated Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center. This disturbance has the potential to be trouble, and needs to be watched carefully. 90L's west-northwest trajectory will carry it to a point about 100 - 200 miles north of Puerto Rico on Monday, and near the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

Typhoon Vongfong giving Okinawa an EPIC BATTERING - Japan's Okinawa Island is receiving an epic battering from Typhoon Vongfong as the powerful storm steams slowly northward at 9 mph. Cooler waters, higher wind shear, and an eyewall replacement cycle had weakened Vongfong to Category 4 strength with 135 mph winds as of 8 am EDT Friday. Satellite loops show that Vongfong is still an impressive storm with a very large area of heavy thunderstorms and a prominent 17-mile diameter eye. Tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph of greater have buffeted Okinawa since 5:39 am EDT Friday (6:39 pm local time), and this large and slow-moving typhoon will keep tropical storm-force winds blowing on the island for an EXTRAORDINARILY LONG PERIOD OF TIME - over 48 straight hours, until approximately 10 am EDT (11 pm local time) Sunday. Wind gusts as high as 81 mph have already been measured on Okinawa, along with sustained winds as high as 59 mph.

Dangerous Tropical Cyclone Hudhud a threat to India - Category 1 Tropical Cyclone Hudhud in the Bay of Bengal is steadily intensifying as it heads west-northwest towards India, with sustained winds estimated at 85 mph at 8 am EDT Friday. intensification into at least a Category 2 cyclone appears likely before Hudhud hits the coast of northern Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha between Visakhapatnam and Gopalpur on Sunday.

Atlantic hurricane season weakest so far since 1983 - This year's Atlantic hurricane season is shaping up to be one of the weakest in decades with only five named storms so far. A broad low pressure system in the Atlantic Ocean has a high chance of forming a tropical or subtropical depression during the next five days.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES -
Drought Monitor: No improvement in California's drought - This week's U.S. Drought Monitor map, which was released Thursday morning, shows how dire drought conditions have become across California. Water conservation efforts across drought-stricken California hit a new high in August, cutting use by 11.5 percent.

HEALTH THREATS -
RECALLS & ALERTS:

World leaders cry for help fighting Ebola - Leaders of African nations ravaged by Ebola are stepping up their pleas for help as the global response to the crisis continues to lag.

Number of people killed in Ebola outbreak rises above 4,000 - The number of deaths attributed to the Ebola outbreak has risen above 4,000, most of them in West Africa.

*****

Global Disaster Watch is on Facebook with breaking news during the day.

Thursday, October 9, 2014

**Above all else, guard your heart, for everything you do flows from it.**


LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.0 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.6 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE

Yesterday -
10/8/14 -
5.2 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
6.5 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
7.1 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
5.6 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
6.0 GULF OF CALIFORNIA

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Western Pacific -
Super typhoon 19w (Vongfong) is located approximately 384 nm south-southeast of Kadena Air Base.

In the North Indian Ocean -
Tropical cyclone 03b (Hudhud) is located approximately 516 nm south of kolkata, India.

Super Typhoon Vongfong Headed Towards Okinawa; 99L May Affect Bermuda. The winds are rising on Japan's Okinawa Island as Earth's most powerful tropical cyclone of 2014, Super Typhoon Vongfong, steams north-northwest at 8 mph. Vongfong peaked in intensity Tuesday with top sustained winds of 180 mph, and had weakened below Category 5 strength with 150 mph winds as of 11 am EDT Thursday.
Satellite loops show that Vongfong is still an impressive storm with a large area of heavy thunderstorms and a prominent 30-mile diameter eye, but the cloud tops have warmed since Wednesday, and the area covered by the typhoon's heaviest thunderstorms has shrunk. Vongfong has two concentric eyewalls, and it is likely that the typhoon is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, where the inner eyewall will collapse and be replaced by the outer eyewall. This process should cause further weakening today.
Okinawa at risk of a direct hit from Vongfong - Vongfong began a turn to the north on Wednesday morning, and is likely to pass over or just to the north of Japan's Okinawa Island near 18 UTC (2 pm EDT) Saturday. With the typhoon moving over waters that will gradually cool, and with wind shear expected to rise to the moderate range, weakening to Category 3 status is likely before Vongfong makes its closest pass by Okinawa.
Rapid weakening should ensue as Vongfong approaches the main Japanese island of Kyushu this weekend, with Category 1 strength likely at landfall. In their 00Z Thursday runs, the European and GFS models predicted landfall would occur on Kyushu between 5 pm - 11 pm U.S. EDT time Sunday evening (21 UTC Sunday - 03 UTC Monday.) Heavy rains from Typhoon Vongfong are expected to fall on soils already saturated by Typhoon Phanfone's rains last week, which could lead to much more severe flooding than was observed for Phanfone. Vongfong will also be moving slower than Phanfone was, potentially leading to higher rainfall amounts.

Dangerous Tropical Cyclone Hudhud a threat to India - intensification into at least a Category 2 cyclone appears likely before Hudhud hits the coast of northern Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha between Visakhapatnam and Gopalpur on Sunday, October 12, between 00 - 06 UTC. Odisha was struck in 2013 by Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Phailin, which killed 45 people and did $700 million in damage. This death toll was extremely low, considering this is a region where 10,000 people died in a similar-strength cyclone in 1999.
The India Meteorological Department provided excellent early warning information for Phailin. On Thursday morning, IMD was forecasting that Hudhud would have sustained winds of 130 - 140 kph (81 - 87 mph) at landfall, making it a strong Category 1 storm. JTWC was forecasting a stronger storm - Category 3 with 120 mph winds. IMD predicted a storm surge of 1 - 2 meters (3.3 - 6.6 feet) would occur near and to the right of where the center makes landfall.

Invest 99L in the Atlantic a possible threat to Bermuda - An area of disturbed weather associated with an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system, located a few hundred miles northeast of Puerto Rico on Thursday morning, was designated Invest 99L by the National Hurricane Center on Thursday morning. Invest 99L was headed northwest to north-northwest at about 10 mph.
Satellite loops showed plenty of spin, since 99L was associated with a non-tropical low pressure system that had already established a vigorous circulation. 99L's heavy thunderstorms were poorly organized and limited to the east side of the center, due to strong upper-level winds from the west pushing dry air into the system. Conditions are favorable for development, but disturbances getting their start from a cold-cored upper level low like 99L have plenty of cold, dry air aloft, which retards development into a tropical system. The 8 am Thursday run of the SHIPS model predicted that conditions would remain favorable for slow development through Saturday.

SPACE WEATHER -

LESS QUIET, MORE FLARES - Sunspot AR2181 is growing and beginning to crackle with impulsive M-class solar flares. This development could break several days of quiet on the sun and lead to a more active weekend.
The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) around Earth was tipping south on Oct. 8th, an arrangement that opens a crack in Earth magnetosphere. Solar wind pouring through the gap will likely spark more auroras around the Arctic Circle.
On Oct. 9, the All Sky Fireball Network reported 53 fireballs. (53 sporadics)

Wednesday, October 8, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

**Being decent is better than being right.**


LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
This morning -
5.6 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
6.0 GULF OF CALIFORNIA

Yesterday, 10/7/14 -
5.0 TAIWAN
5.0 PAGAN REG., N. MARIANA ISLANDS
6.1 YUNNAN, CHINA
5.5 ICELAND
5.2 OFF COAST OF TARAPACA, CHILE
5.4 TARAPACA, CHILE

10/6/14 -
5.7 MARIANA ISLANDS REGION
5.0 SAN JUAN, ARGENTINA
5.1 SOUTHWEST INDIAN RIDGE
5.1 NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.

* In the Western Pacific Ocean -
Super typhoon 19w (Vongfong) is located approximately 510 nm south-southeast of Kadena Air Base.

*In the North Indian Ocean -
Tropical cyclone 03b (Hudhud) is located approximately 562 nm south of Chittagong, India. Forecast to make landfall along the East Coast of India.
---------------------------------
Earth's most powerful tropical cyclone since 2013's devastating Super Typhoon Haiyan, Super Typhoon Vongfong, peaked in intensity Tuesday with top sustained winds of 180 mph, and has weakened slightly. Super Typhoon Vongfong is a Threat to Japan; Tropical Cyclone Hudhud Menaces India. Vongfong is Earth's fourth Category 5 storm of the year, and the second in the Western Pacific. (maps & more at link)

Quiet in the Atlantic - Our top three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis show nothing developing over the next five days in the Atlantic, though we should watch an area of disturbed weather between the Bahamas and Bermuda that could develop early next week. If development does occur, Bermuda would likely be the only land area affected by the storm.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES -
The pilot of an air tanker battling a wildfire in Yosemite National Park in California has died after the plane crashed into a canyon wall on Tuesday.

SPACE WEATHER -
Skywatchers awed by 'Blood Moon' - A total lunar eclipse has been visible in much of the Americas and East Asia, the second such event of the year.

HEALTH THREATS -
RECALLS & ALERTS:

The first person to be diagnosed with Ebola within the US, a man who contracted it in Liberia, has died in hospital in Dallas.

Five US airports to enhance screenings for Ebola - Travelers from West Africa arriving at five large airports in the U.S. will have their temperature taken and face questions about their health in an effort to prevent the spread of Ebola, federal officials said Wednesday.

*****

Global Disaster Watch is on Facebook with breaking news during the day.
After an unintended, extended break from updating the webpage, I plan to restart updates next week on Wednesday, October 8th.

Sunday, September 14, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.



LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
This morning -
5.0 TONGA
5.5 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA

Yesterday, 9/13/14 -
5.3 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN
5.2 TONGA
5.0 ICELAND
5.0 TAJIKISTAN

9/12/14 -
5.1 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.1 SERAM, INDONESIA
5.1 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.3 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.0 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.2 VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.2 VANUATU
5.1 SOUTH SHETLAND ISLANDS
5.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS

After Napa earthquake, Silicon Valley looks to build high-tech alert system - Among the many things the Bay Area learned from the recent shaker near Napa is that UC Berkeley's earthquake warning system does indeed work for the handful of people who receive its messages, but the rest find out about a tremor only after it knocks them out of bed.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.

*In the Atlantic -
Hurricane Edouard is located about 860 mi (1385 km) NE of the northern Leeward Islands.

*In the Eastern Pacific -
Major Hurricane Odile expected to affect southern Baja California tonight and Monday, located about 140 mi (225 km) SSE of the southern tip of Baja California.

* In the Western Pacific Ocean -
Tropical storm Kalmaegi is located approximately 783 nm east of Hanoi, Vietnam.
---------------------------------
Typhoon Kalmaegi slams northern Philippines, cuts power lines - A strong typhoon slammed into the rice-producing Philippine northern region on Sunday, cutting power and communications lines and forcing people to flee to higher ground. Packing central winds of 130 kph and gusts of up to 160 kph, Typhoon Kalmaegi made landfall early evening Sunday in Isabela province, dumping heavy rains that soaked farms.
Halmaegi, known locally as "Luis", is moving west northwest at 22 kph, but is expected to weaken and lose speed as it will cross a mountainous region before exiting into the South China Sea. Typhoon alert levels were raised in 22 provinces, mostly in the northern and central plains of the main island of Luzon. People were warned against flash floods, landslides and storm surges reaching 2 metres in coastal areas.
On Sunday, civil aviation authorities grounded 24 domestic flights while the coast guard stopped ferries and fishing boats from going to sea. Soldiers were placed on alert to evacuated communities. "Some farmers have started to harvest rice and corn days before the typhoon." On Monday, some public offices and schools will be shut down because they will be used as temporary shelter areas.

Powerful Hurricane Odile aims at Mexico’s Baja - Hurricane Odile grew into a powerful Category 4 storm Sunday and took aim at the resort area of Los Cabos, prompting Mexican authorities to evacuate vulnerable coastal areas and prepare shelters for up to 30,000 people. The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said Odile was on a track to pass close to or directly over the southern end of the Baja California Peninsula late Sunday and into Monday.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -
Asia floods - Kashmir valley 'submerged after floods'. Rescue efforts following the floods which have affected parts of Northern India and Pakistan have been disrupted by further rainfall. More than 400 people have died in landslides and flooding and hundreds of thousands of people remain trapped by floodwaters. India's air force has suspended rescue operations until the rain clears. Srinagar in Indian-administered Kashmir which is particularly badly hit. (video)

*****

Global Disaster Watch is on Facebook with breaking news during the day.

Friday, September 12, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

**A man who lies to himself is often the first to take offense. And surely he knows that no one has offended him, and that he himself has invented the offense and told lies just for the beauty of it, that he has exaggerated for the sake of effect, that he has picked on a word and made a mountain out of a pea — he knows all of that, and still he is the first to take offense, he likes feeling offended, it gives him great pleasure, and thus he reaches the point of real hostility.**
- Dostoevsky

LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
This morning -
5.1 SERAM, INDONESIA
5.1 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.3 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.0 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.2 VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.2 VANUATU
5.1 SOUTH SHETLAND ISLANDS
5.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS

Yesterday, 9/11/14 -
5.0 ICELAND
5.0 ICELAND
5.0 VANUATU

9/10/14 -
5.2 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.0 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.3 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.0 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.3 MOLUCCA SEA
5.0 MOLUCCA SEA
5.1 ICELAND
5.6 MOLUCCA SEA
5.1 SULU SEA
5.7 MOLUCCA SEA
5.2 SOUTHEAST INDIAN RIDGE
6.3 MOLUCCA SEA
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

9/9/14 -
5.0 TONGA REGION
5.0 WESTERN INDIAN-ANTARCTIC RIDGE
5.4 MYANMAR-INDIA BORDER REGION
5.2 ICELAND
5.1 SULU ARCHIPELAGO, PHILIPPINES

9/8/14 -
5.0 FIJI REGION
5.4 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
5.3 OFF COAST OF JALISCO, MEXICO

9/7/14 -
5.2 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.1 FED. STATES OF MICRONESIA REGION
5.5 ICELAND
5.0 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.

9/6/14 -
5.2 EASTER ISLAND REGION
6.0 OFF COAST OF JALISCO, MEXICO
5.0 EASTER ISLAND REGION
5.8 EASTER ISLAND REGION
5.1 EASTER ISLAND REGION
6.1 EASTER ISLAND REGION
5.1 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.1 ICELAND

VOLCANOES -

Hawaii prepares for Kilauea Volcano's lava to cut off community on Big Island. Businesses in a small Hawaii town are facing a slow- motion disaster as lava from Kilauea volcano oozes toward roads connecting them.

While filming Papua New Guinea’s Mount Tavurvur from a passing boat, a tourist caught the active volcano erupting and then the shock, moments later, when the massive sound hits them. (video)

Iceland Volcanic Eruption Sending Toxic Gases Throughout Region - Foul-smelling gases from the Bardarbunga volcanic eruption in Iceland are pestering the region, reaching Norway and Finland more than a thousand kilometers away.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details. *In the Atlantic -
Tropical storm Edouard expected to stay out to sea, located about 1315 mi (2120 km) E of the northern Leeward Islands.

*In the East Pacific -
- Tropical Depression 16-E is moving more slowly north-northwestward with no change in strength, about 785 mi (1265 km) WSW of the southern tip of Baja California. The depression is forecast to become a remnant low by Sunday. day.
- Tropical storm Odile a little stronger, located about 250 mi (400 km) SW of Manzanillo, Mexico. On the forecast track, the center of Odile is expected to remain well offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico through Saturday. Odile is expected to become a hurricane tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Friday. Swells from Odile are expected to begin affecting portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico in a day or so.

* In the Western Pacific Ocean -
Tropical storm Kalmaegi is located approximately 492 nm east of Manila, Philippines.
---------------------------------
September 11 marks the halfway point of the Atlantic hurricane season (based on the past 100 years of data, 1914-2013) and we're doing much better than usual so far. Only four named storms have formed, with three becoming hurricanes (and no major hurricanes.)
An average Atlantic hurricane season has 6 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane by the mid-point of the season. The four storms so far in 2014 have inflicted much less punishment than usual for half of a hurricane season.
Hurricane Arthur made landfall in North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane then blasted the Maritime Provinces of Canada as a powerful hurricane-force extratropical storm, but damage was low by Category 2 hurricane standards - just $14 million, with most of the damage occurring in Canada. Hurricane Bertha caused two deaths along the U.S. East Coast due to rough surf and strong rip currents, but did insignificant damage as it recurved out to sea, just off the coast.
Hurricane Cristobal also did minimal damage, but killed a total of seven people - three swimmers in the U.S., and flood victims in Haiti (2), the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Tropical Storm Dolly, which made landfall in northeastern Mexico on September 2 with 50 mph winds and torrential rains, killed one person and did millions in damage.
Residents of Hurricane Alley shouldn't assume the rest of the season will end with a whimper, though. All it takes is one bad hurricane to make a ruinous hurricane season. Recall that 2012's worst storm - Hurricane Sandy - didn't occur until the third week of October!
Central Atlantic Tropical Depression 6 does not appear to be a long-range threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands, U.S. East Coast, or Bermuda. It remains to be seen if TD 6 will be a threat to the Canadian Maritime Provinces late next week.

Flood threat to Mexico from Tropical Storm Odile diminishes - In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Odile formed on Wednesday morning a few hundred miles southwest of Acapulco. Satellite loops show that Odile has a large area of heavy thunderstorms that are slowly organizing, but the heavy rains of the storm are remaining just offshore of the Pacific coast of Mexico. If Odile follows the current projections from our two top track models, the GFS and European, these rains will remain offshore as the storm moves northwest, parallel to the coast. If the storm deviates to the right of its expected path, it will be capable of dumping 5 - 10" of rain along the coast from Acapulco to Puerto Vallarta.

Why has the Eastern Pacific been so active? - It's been a remarkably active hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific; Odile's formation gives the basin 15 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 7 intense hurricanes so far this year. An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season sees 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes during the entire year, with about 2/3 of that activity occurring by September 9.
Since July, the Eastern Pacific has had ocean temperatures about 0.6°C (1°F) above average and wind shear about 20% below average. The region has been dominated by moist, rising air and low pressure, leading to above average vertical instability. All of these factors are favorable for an active hurricane season.
The Atlantic and Eastern Pacific are usually out of phase with their hurricane seasons - when one is active, the other is inactive. This occurs because when the large-scale atmospheric circulation favors rising air and low pressure over one ocean basin, there must be high pressure and dry, sinking air elsewhere to compensate - which typically occurs over the neighboring ocean basin, suppressing hurricane activity there.

Tropical Depression 15 forms east of the Philippines - In the Western Pacific, Tropical Depression Fifteen is organizing in the waters east of the Philippines, and is on course to intensify into a typhoon and potentially affect the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island on Sunday. TD 15 will then potentially impact China early next week.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -
Heavy Rain Hits Japan - Emergency Alerts Issued in Hokkaido. The Japan Meteorological Agency on Thursday issued emergency alerts in western Hokkaido, forcing officials to order the evacuation of nearly one million people living near rivers.

Hundreds die in India, Pakistan after HEAVIEST RAIN IN 50 YEARS. The death toll from the heaviest rain to fall on Kashmir in 50 years rose to more than 400 on Tuesday.

Arizona - Heavy storms pounded the Phoenix area early Monday, flooding major freeways and small roads, leading to several water rescues and setting an ALL-TIME RECORD FOR RAINFALL in the city in a single day.

SPACE WEATHER -
STORM WARNING - Among space weather forecasters, confidence is building that Earth's magnetic field will receive a double-blow from a pair of CMEs on Sept. 12th. The two storm clouds were propelled in our direction by explosions in the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR2158 on Sept. 9th and 10th, respectively. Strong geomagnetic storms are possible on Sept. 12th and 13th as a result of the consecutive impacts. Sky watchers, even those at mid-latitudes, should be alert for auroras in the nights ahead.
Sunspot AR2158 erupted on Sept. 10th at 17:46 UT, producing an X1.6-class solar flare. A flash of ultraviolet radiation from the explosion ionized the upper layers of Earth's atmosphere, disturbing HF radio communications for more than an hour. More importantly, the explosion hurled a CME directly toward Earth.
Radio emissions from shock waves at the leading edge of the CME indicate that the cloud tore through the sun's atmosphere at speeds as high as 3,750 km/s. By the time it left the sun's atmosphere, however, the cloud had decelerated to 1,400 km/s. This makes it a fairly typical CME instead of a "super CME" as the higher speed might suggest.
Even with a downgrade in speed, this CME has the potential to trigger significant geomagnetic activity when it reaches Earth's magnetic field during the mid-to-late hours of Sept. 12th. NOAA forecasters estimate an almost-80% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on Sept. 12-13.
Sunspots AR2157 and AR2158 have unstable magnetic fields that harbor energy for strong explosions. NOAA forecasters estimated a 40% chance of X-class flares and a whopping 85% chance of M-flares on Sept. 11th.
The X-flare of Sept 10th caused a radio blackout on Earth. Ironically, it also caused a blast of radio noise. Radio astronomers and hams in the Americas and across the Pacific Ocean heard static roaring from the loudspeakers of their shortwave receivers. "It was absolutely howling." Radio emissions like these are caused by shock waves in the sun's atmosphere.

*****

Global Disaster Watch is on Facebook with breaking news during the day.